代写 ECOS2025 economic policies and risks in East Asia

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    • 代写 ECOS2025 economic policies and risks in East Asia

    ECOS2025 Course Information


    No single textbook.
    Lectures based on various readings (see UoS outline). 
    Some useful books (optional to purchase as an e-book) are:



    Learning Structure
    vFollowing each lecture, there’ll normally be a tutorial (classroom) discussion in the same venue.  Detailed tutorial answers will NOT be available on Blackboard or in any other form.
    vThere will be 4 guest lectures (detail and dates to be confirmed soon).
    vGuest lectures will NOT be recorded (but can still be examinable).
    vUse Q&A Discussion (Ed dashboard) for peer to peer discussion as well as posting a course related question.


    Learning and Assessments
    Weekly lectures (approx. 2 hours) + tutorial after lecture. But, it may vary.
    Guest lectures by invited speakers to deepen and broaden understanding.
    Online learning (regular quizzes and online discussion);  N.B. Quiz 1 opens in Week 3.
    Online discussion (Q&A)
    Midterm test (in class, in April)
    Final exam



    What do we study?
    Learning Objectives

    To understand growth experiences and contemporary policy issues in East Asia.
    To apply various economic concepts and models to analyse and evaluate economic policies and risks in East Asia.



    Some Caveats
    1.This course is not an economic history course, although it helps, however, to deepen our understanding of economics.
    2.This course follows mainstream economic approach. Non-mainstream (e.g. Marxian, institutional or other non-orthodox) paradigms may be discussed but will be downplayed.
    3.This course considers both theory and data. We will analyse data occasionally.
    4.We will need to stay up to date with contemporary economic events in the region.
    What economic theory?
    The following economic theories will be applied:

    1.long-run economic growth
    2.exchange rate determination
    3.fiscal and monetary policy
    4.international trade
    5.game theory

    N.B. Lowest common denominator of your economic backgrounds will be assumed.

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                 Economic Growth over the Millennia

                
    Regional share of World GDP
    Average Annual Growth in GDP per capita 1965-1999.
                
    Some Growth Facts
    Since the Industrial Revolution, western countries led the world economic growth.
    World population           =  1 bn  in 1900      7 bn today
    Life expectancy           =  40 yrs            70 yrs 
    Child mortality (<1yr old) =  25%               6%      
    % read & write            =  25%               80%    
    Poverty (<US$2 per day) =  almost 1 bn    1 bn    
    Global standard of living is improving, mainly due to growth in China and India since 1980.
    East Asian Newly Industrialised Economies (NIEs) experienced ‘growth miracle’ over 1960s – 1990s.
    East Asian Growth:
    Key facts and question
    Since 1960, NIEs grew at historically unprecedented rates.
    Changed the patterns of world trade and lifted millions out of absolute poverty.
    Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 led to an abrupt halt in the growth miracle, exposing structural weaknesses.
    China’s continued strong growth changed the global pattern of trade and investment. Will China continue to be the world’s economic centre of gravity?
    Can Japan resuscitate its economic growth?
    Would South Korea become the next Japan?
    Can South East Asia (except Singapore) catch up with the North?

    Region of Focus
    Free Trade Agreements (FTAs):
    Bilateral FTAs

    Multilateral FTAs
    Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)

    Leaders for modern growth

    China: World’s 2nd largest but the most populated economy
    Japan: Asia’s most industrialised economy.
    South Korea: Asia’s growth miracle

    These countries have
    Common and country specific features
    Shown convergence in growth

    代写 ECOS2025 economic policies and risks in East Asia






    Asian leaders of modern growth:

    Japan: Shigeru Yoshida
    (1946 – 1954)
    §Led the economic restructure
       after WWII
    §Built the foundation for
       Japanese MNCs





    Asian leaders of modern growth:

    Korea: Park Chung-hee
    (1961 – 1979)

    §Got the power by coup d'etat
    §Led the ‘growth miracle’ and
        industrialisation
       






    Asian leaders of modern growth:

    China: Deng Xiaping
    (1978 – 1992)



    Asian leaders of modern growth:

    Singapore: Lee Kuan Yew
    (1959 – 1990)
    -
    §Meritocracy led economic model
    §Government owned enterprises
    §Maxmimised foreign capital




    Asian leaders of modern growth:

    Malaysia: Mahathir bin Mohamad
    (1981 – 2003)

    §“Look East” policies
    §Manufacturing led economy
    §



    What Explains the Growth ‘Miracle’?
    All inherited a destroyed economy and/or had a colonial history.
    Japan: defeated in WWII in 1945
    Korea: under Japanese colonial ruling (1910-45) and destroyed by a civil war (1950-53).
    China: Japanese occupation and the Chinese civil war (1927–50).
    Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia: all emerged from colonial rulings.
    Vietnam: colonial history, civil war to communism




    Some Structuralist Hypotheses
    ‘Flying geese’ (FG) hypothesis
    ØProposed by Akamatsu (1962) as a model of dynamic comparative advantage
    ØFlying geese pattern of economic developments (US à Japan à NIEs (Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong King)  à ASEAN 4 à …..) aimed to explain the catching-up process of industrialization in latecomer economies
    Øpro-trade oriented foreign direct investment
        (FDI) mechanism

    Ø




    Some Structuralist Hypotheses
    Rostow’s (1960) 5 stages of economic growth
    1.Traditional society
    2.Pre-conditions for take-off
    3.Take-off
    4.Drive to maturity
    5.Age of high mass production and consumption

    Problems?
    -Based on European economies
    -Not all countries start with the same endowment and follow the same process



    Some Structuralist Hypotheses
    Other views (hypotheses) of economic development

    qDependency theory; centre – periphery view of world growth
    qImport substitution based on infant industry argument
    qBig push theory of development (Soviet style command economy)

    Can any of these theories explain any successful economy?


    What Explains the ‘Growth Miracle’?
    What was the main economic ideology adopted?
    ØAmerican style free markets (Laissez faire) approach?
    ØSoviet style central planning?
    ØNeo-Marxist ‘dependency’ theory?
    ØImport substitution
    §
    East Asia developed a unique Asian model although there are substantial country specific variations.


    What Explains the Growth Miracle?
    1) What was the main economic ideology adopted?
    Is ‘Asian Model’ unique?

    ØMarket based approach but not quite American
    ØDiverse groups involved: politicians, bureaucrats, technocrats, capitalists, entrepreneurs, foreign firms ….
    ØGov’t often picked the ‘winners’
    ØOutward or export led development (opposed to Import substitution)



    Growth and Institutions




    2) Was the Asian culture important?
    ØConfucian ethics?  Why not all East Asian countries?  Why not earlier?
    ØEach growth miracle had some country specific episodes. Does one size fit all?
    3) Did global conditions matter?
    ØUtilised the global conditions (stability under the US hegemony and the Cold War?)
    ØFixed exchange rate system provided stability and suited export oriented growth.
    ØTechnological progress and population growth







    代写 ECOS2025 economic policies and risks in East Asia